New York Will Lose Two House Seats, and New Jersey One

By RAYMOND HERNANDEZ

WASHINGTON — New York will lose 2 of its 29 seats in the House, while New Jersey will lose 1 of its 13 seats, because of population shifts reported by the Census Bureau on Tuesday. 

The last time New York had 27 House seats was in the early 1820s, when the chamber had 181 seats. 

The census figures usher in a once-a-decade process in which state legislatures must redraw boundaries for Congressional districts on the basis of population changes. There are 435 seats in the House. 

Redistricting is a highly political exercise in which House members count on old friendships, alliances, favors and lobbyists as they seek to persuade leaders in state capitols to keep their districts relatively unchanged to ensure their re-election. 

The losses in New York and New Jersey result from a continuing shift of population toward the South and the West. 

For New York, the losses continue a slide that began after World War II. In the 1940s, New York’s Congressional delegation had 45 members, its highest number ever. 

New Jersey’s Congressional delegation was last reduced after the 1990 census, when one House district was eliminated. 

Connecticut, where the population grew by 5.05 percent to 3,581,628, will keep its five House seats. 

The census figures released on Tuesday showed that New York State’s population grew by 2.19 percent to 19,421,055, not enough to keep pace with population growth in the South and the West. 

In New Jersey, the population rose to 8,807,501, or a 4.55 percent rise, well below the nation’s population increase of 9.7 percent. 

The new Congressional maps must be drawn in time for the 2012 elections. In most states, the maps must be approved not only by the legislature but also by the governor. 

In New York, the process will be particularly partisan because power in the Legislature will be divided: the Democrats will control the Assembly, while the Republicans will control the Senate. 

In the past when the state has had to give up seats, leaders of the Assembly and the Senate have sought to share the pain, with each party agreeing to sacrifice a Congressional seat it held. 

When New York lost two seats after the 2000 census, for example, Democratic and Republican leaders reached a deal that eliminated one district belonging to a Democrat in Buffalo and one held by a Republican in the Hudson Valley. 

But it is possible that Republican and Democratic leaders will fail to reach a compromise. If that happens, the courts could step in and draw new Congressional lines for New York, an outcome that political leaders will almost certainly try to avoid. 

Political leaders in Albany are under pressure to adopt a nonpartisan commission to handle redistricting, primarily from a civic coalition organized by Edward I. Koch, the former New York mayor. But lawmakers have previously resisted any efforts to force them to surrender the power of redrawing the state’s political map. 

The population growth in New York State was driven by New York City and several of its suburbs, according to an analysis of census figures by The New York Times. The upstate region, including Buffalo, Rochester and Syracuse, lost population, making it likely that House seats will be eliminated there. 

Six Congressional districts in upstate New York lost between 2,000 and 44,000 people, according to the Times analysis. When the new Congress convenes in January, four of those districts will be held by Republicans and two by Democrats. 

The two upstate districts with the heaviest population losses are in western New York: the 27th, which is held by Brian Higgins, a three-term Democrat, and the 28th, which is held by Louise M. Slaughter, an eight-term Democrat. 

Unlike New York, New Jersey is one of a handful of states where redistricting is not done directly by the Legislature, but by a bipartisan commission. 

Still, Gov. Chris Christie, a Republican, said on Tuesday that he expected the fight over redistricting to bitterly divide Republicans and Democrats. 

“It’ll be intensely partisan because someone’s going to lose a seat,” Mr. Christie said, according to the Associated Press. “The Democrats will want the Republicans to lose a seat, and the Republicans will want the Democrats to lose a seat.” 

Democrats have an 8-to-5 advantage in New Jersey’s Congressional delegation. But that will become 7-to-6 in January in the new Congress, because of the victory of Jon Runyan over Representative John Adler, a freshman Democrat who was the state’s only incumbent to lose in November. 

Two traditionally Republican districts in New Jersey are considered competitive, so changes in their boundaries could easily shift their partisan balance: the Third District, in South Jersey, which Mr. Runyan won, and the Seventh District, in the central part of the state, held by Representative Leonard Lance, another Republican. 

The state must wait for the release of more-detailed census data to learn whether population gains were concentrated in the northeastern part of the state, in the mostly Democratic suburbs of New York City, or in the more Republican areas to the south and west.