President Obama's poll numbers on the rise. Just in time to ruin the new year for Republicans.

Courtesy of CNN:  

Improving views of the economy have helped hike President Barack Obama's approval rating to a 20-month high, a new CNN/ORC poll showed Tuesday, as markets climbed to record levels at news of an economy in overdrive. 

More Americans still disapprove of the job Obama is doing as President. But at 48%, Obama's approval rating is at its highest point in CNN polling since May 2013. 

The gains were driven by newfound backing among women, independents and millennials — groups where Obama's approval numbers jumped 10 percentage points from a month ago.

You know the only thing better than good news, is good news that you know will irritate the GOP.

I have a feeling that if the President continues his new "Fuck you I'm going to do it anyway" attitude that his poll numbers will probably keep right on climbing.

And if he manages to get Gitmo closed....well then all bets are off.

New poll numbers show good news for Alaskan Democrats.

Courtesy of Ivan Moore's Facebook page:  

600 sample of registered voters, fielded Friday 24th - Sunday 26th. MOE +/- 4%. 

There are two likely voter subgroups for this survey, one fairly loose (544 sample), and one tighter (330 sample). I'm giving results for both screens for transparency. Suffice to say, the 544 sample suggests a 90% turnout, which is highly unlikely, even this year... while the 330 suggests a 55% turnout, which is historically very close to reality. Also the age distribution of the 330 sample is exactly what you would see if you combined Alaska census data for age with average turnouts by age group. In other words, the 544 gives us good sample size in our view of the electorate, the 330 is the closer modeling of turnout on election day: 
 

Senator Mark Begich

US SENATE: 

544 sample: Begich (D) 48.3% Sullivan (R) 41.6% Other 6.5% Undecided 3.6% 

330 sample: Begich (D) 50.1% Sullivan (R) 42.2% Other 5.3% Undecided 2.4% 
 

Forrest Dunbar

US CONGRESS: 

544 sample: Dunbar (D) 42.6% Young (R) 44.4% McDermott (L) 9.5% Undecided 3.5% 

330 sample: Dunbar (D) 46.1% Young (R) 40.6% McDermott (L) 9.6% Undecided 3.7% 

Not much of a difference in the Senate race between the two screens... Begich has a 6.7% lead in one, 7.9% in the other. 

The Congress race is interesting... Young up by 1.8% when you look at the wider population, but zero in on the people who are the highest probability to turn out and Dunbar has a lead of 5.5%. 

That's what happens when you really tick people off two weeks before an election.

I had been avoiding pollsters lately so I was not part of this one, however yesterday I did participate in two back to back polls, and one was for Moore, so I imagine that the next poll will include my input.

I have to say that if these polls are accurate it indicates some very good news for Alaskans.

It would be very unusual for Dan Sullivan to win against a lifelong Alaskan, as regardless of politics we tend to protect our own. Begich may not vote the way that many Alaskans want him to in Washington, but he is still one of us.

As for Don Young, well one of us or not, he is becoming too much of an embarrassment for Alaskans to tolerate any longer.

Quite literally every time I hear his name come up it is right before somebody expresses anger and frustration at having him represent us in D.C..

I really think that Don Young may finally have pissed off too many people to wind the election. 

About damn time!

Did Mark Begich just take the lead in Alaska's Senate race?

Okay hang on, don't  get cocky.

Courtesy of TPM:  

An Anchorage polling firm is giving Sen. Mark Begich (D-AK) an unexpectedly huge lead in his re-election bid less than two weeks before Election Day and with early voting underway. 

Hellenthal and Associates shows Begich up 10 points over Republican challenger Dan Sullivan, 49 percent to 39 percent. It is by far the biggest lead that Begich has seen and runs counter to most public polling, which has shown Sullivan with a consistent advantage since mid-September. 

Another poll released Friday and sponsored by Democratic PAC's supporting Begich showed the race tied at 44 percent. 

The Hellenthal and Associates poll, conducted Oct 15 to 21, surveyed 403 likely voters. Its margin of error is 4.9 points.

I am having a hard time trusting the polls right now. Partly because I have stopped participating in them, and I know I am not alone. 

It is no exaggeration to say that I get between four and five phone calls a day asking that I participate in a poll, or giving me unsolicited information on the candidates or issues.

I have also had at least five visits from the unions asking me if  I am going to support Begich. Which I point out they should already know as illustrated by the fact that I have a Mark Begich sign on my front lawn.

However I will tell you something that I firmy feel to be true and that is that the glut of anti-Begich ads that pop up EVERY SINGLE time that you try to watch a YouTube or Hulu video is turning people against Dan Sullivan in a big way.

The overkill is absolutely incredible, and there is no escaping it since trying to watch television or listen to the radio also exposes you to yet another series of never ending attacks on Mark Begich, many of them filled with completely false statements that many Alaskans know are bullshit.

 What I keep telling everybody is that a vote against this guy is a vote against attempts to buy local elections by outside corporations. And that if we allow Sullivan to win we can expect all of this to escalate even more in the years to come.

And not just in Alaska. If this formula works here, these billionaires have no reason to think it will not work EVERYWHERE.